Introduction to the story of 2030 in Bellingen NSW

The year 2030 in the Bellingen area has as usual been hot and dry with a number of storms when the weather patterns allow these to happen.

The purpose of this story is to record the journey from 2014 to 2030. 

2014 is a relevant year although the Bellingen Shire 2030 plan had been adopted in 2012, but it was in 2014 that the community realised that Governments at all levels did not have the will to prepare for the future, but wanted to continue with “business as usual”. Therefore the community would need to take control of their own destiny.

The then Bellingen Shire web site reported the following

"Bellingen's 2030 Community Strategic Plan gets a Tick of Approval

Last year, in line with the Integrated Planning and Reporting (IP&R) legislation the residents and stakeholders of Bellingen Shire took part in the creation of its Community Strategic Plan (CSP).

The plan, which is currently under review, provides details on how Council intends to deliver works and services in the short and long term based on the community priorities identified through the consultation and engagement process. The IP&R suite of documents were adopted by Council in June 2012. 

In recognition of both the work undertaken and the quality of these plans, the Division of Local Government, has selected Bellingen Council as an example of good practice and will promote our overall suite of plans in its updated Planning and Reporting for local government in NSW Manual and Guidelines. Most importantly Bellingen Shire Council was one of only 10 councils to be showcased in this way. 

These documents are generally used by councils to guide their approach to, and implementation of, the Integrated Planning and Reporting Framework (IP&R).

General Manager, Liz Jeremy was thrilled with the announcement and took the opportunity to again thank the residents and community groups who came together throughout the consultation process to help shape the future direction of our community."

The 2030 plan listed a number of challenges and the following sections outline what happened between 2014 and 2030.

One challenge that was not listed was the demise of the Bellingen Shire Council absorbed into the super council that stretches from the Central Coast to the Queensland border. How the people of Bellingen dealt with this change is described under the challenge "ENGAGING WITH EACH OTHER"

The problem of dealing with climate change in the lead up to 2030, was that no experts could be sure what changes would be prominent, so decisions were made to deal with all possibilities. This proved to be correct because a long dry period could be followed by savage storms and floods but the trend was always warmer, but with unpredictable cold snaps.  

Shire of Belllingen 2030 Community Vision - Our Challenges

right click and open in new window to expand chart

Our changing climate and hotter weather, localised flooding and greater bushfire risk

In 2014 the predictions for the climate in the future were of great concern and would be subject to much argument.

Those who believed the climate was changing expected that the mid north coast would face
higher temperatures, but also endure unexpected periods of damaging storms and cold periods, as a result of all the changes.

The change in temperature of the oceans would affect weather patterns.

By the end of 2014 more refined information became available with the "NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling System able to deliver resolution of impacts down to a 10 kilometre scale".

The link is http://researchdata.ands.org.au/nsw-and-act-regional-climate-model-narclim-project-dataset

The only safe approach was to prepare for all situations and if this meant building natural and made man structures, just in case, so be it.

In renewing the landscape, care was taken to minimise the risk of bush fires. Hemp paddocks proved to be useful tool in reducing fire risk. Forests were arranged to provide greatest advantage of migrating animals, many looking for new areas as the temperatures increased.

Peak Oil

Concern over peak oil was hotly debated in the early years of the twenty first century.

Oil companies looked to ways of extending supplies but this lead to rising prices for oil products,  greater risk from extreme exploration and several massive accidents lead public opinion to support change.

It became increasingly clear that terrorists and some states were using funds from oil production to support mayhem in the middle east, causing sickening casualties.

By 2018 the world public had decided that other fuel sources should be used.

For instance:

Conversion of algae to fuel could take place at a local level, reducing the movement of oil products.

Electric vehicles demonstrated increased efficiency and pollution free attributes, winning over public
support.

Supporting existing businesses

At the start of the 2020 decade, there was rising public concern over the influence of national companies over retail sales, and recognition of value of local distribution and service industries.

Local businesses demonstrated that personal service attention would bring customers to them, rather  than having to endure the automated impersonal approach offered by the large organisations.

It is worth reiterating the case for localisation.

How does localisation help?

Apart from improving the quality of fresh foods, growing locally brings more money to the local community. Buying locally keeps more money in the local community.
There has been a lot of research on this concept, and conclusions of the effectiveness range widely.

The impact of buying from the major supermakets for someone in Bellingen is quite clear. Apart from travelling, most likely driving, to Coffs Harbour, you can be sure that none of your money will stay in the local Bellingen community, but 80% of it will immediatley be transferred to the headquarters of the company. Only 20 % may remain to be used by the Coffs Harbour community.

Why is this important?

Money retained in the local community will be used again and again, some estimates suggest 6 times but other 2-3 times.
The local organic vegetable grower sells food into the local market and then spends the money earned in the local community. They may grow plants from their own seeds and do produce highly nutritious products.
In town, the butcher gets a haircut, the hairdresser spends some of the earnings buying meat, having coffee, the barista has a haircut. Of course, if the barista goes to Coffs Harbour for a haircut, the opportunity for further circulation of that money ceases.

Buy-local schemes are proposed from time to time by the Chamber of Commerce, and local food initiatives such as Bellofoodbox are putting local supply and distribution into effect.

The most beneficial approach is to grow your own food from your own seeds – guaranteed quality of product at lowest cost. The money saved can be spent in the local community on other products and it will circulate to the benefit of the community.

If you earned less money from a shorter working week, you would have more time to grow your highly nutritious vegetables, spend less in travelling to work, see the kids more often, get them to grow the vegetables.

The way the economy had developed in the name of efficiency made it more difficult to move to a localised economy. However the change in public opinion about big business from 2015 was the catalyst for this change.

More about the effect on the local community is reported in the section on "ENGAGING WITH EACH OTHER"

Food Security

The change in climate to hotter drier conditions with unpredicatable extreme events demonstrated that large farms and movement of food products over long distances would lead to local food shortages.

Growing food closer to the market allowed greater flexibility. Greater attention could be given to protecting plants  using techniques such as

vertical gardens

geodesic dome covers and temperature control

aqua culture

wind breaks on the plateau -which needed to be planted in 2015 to be effective by 2030

Small farms and home gardens provided a greater proportion of food for households through the years from 2014.

There was a recognition of the need to eat food fresh to the season and produce alternative products as traditional supplies struggled with the changing climate e.g.  failure of wheat based products.

Although water storage was important for many aspects of living, the need for water in horticulture influenced where and how water was stored.

Collecting water from the air was developed over the years click on AIR WATER for details.

Floods continue despite the drier weather patterns and capturing water into off stream storage became essential. Apart from the main Bellinger River, various size storage was developed on other streams.

The important factor was the storage was underground to prevent evaporation.

Many years ago the cost of labour was a problem for farmers. Changing rules allowed farmers to provide free land space for people to build their own small houses, in exchange for labour on the small farms.

Changes in Technology

In  the lead up to 2030, the priority of technological development has been to find ways to localise new innovations.

The general distaste with large scale approaches is clearly related to the feeling that globalisation has failed.  The solution is localisation and to a certain extent standardisation.

As early as 2014 there were signs that young people were losing interest in cars and over time vehicles became a commodity. click on  MAZDAS CONCERN
Vehicle engines became simplified and standardised by power output. Components were interchangeable.

Electricity

The move away from the national electricity grid after 2016 using renewable power sources, required development of local power storage, which gradually decentralised so each home had its own power storage using "power routers".

Hovercraft jem-mobile

The interest in using hovercraft was triggered by the interest of a young Bellingen man and the vehicles developed incorporate his name. 

research has shown  that

"hovercraft are, in fact, much more environment friendly than a conventional vessel.

Modern hovercraft designs have the blades contained within a short tunnel called a duct; this not only avoids the turbulence spilling off the blade tips but it also helps to control the air passing through the propeller allowing the thrust to be made more directional, so this is a double boost to efficiency as well as reducing noise levels.

Excessive wash can, of course, cause erosion to and stir up the bed of shallow water; it therefore follows that any vessel which can minimise this effect is doing less environmental damage. Hovercraft do not just minimise the effects of wash, they virtually totally eliminate it.

It can be quite easily demonstrated that the hovercraft will, in fact, cause less disturbance than the high tide or a person walking across the beach meaning that hovercraft are able to cross areas which are environmentally sensitive without damaging the environment or disturbing the wildlife living there."

The technical developments moved away from use of fossil fuels to electro magnetic solutions which were most useful for hovercraft.

The advantage of the hover vehicle was that it took the load off road surfaces, reducing the cost of building and maintaining roads. One innovation included to emitting ultra sonic rays to the road surface to control growth of weeds on the dirt road surface.

There is a great variation of sizes of hover vehicles, from a 2 seater to a truck size. In the Bellingen context the larger vehicles  transport goods and passengers along the Bellinger River. Sea level rises mean that access through Bellingen Heads has become easier and ocean going ships offload containers at Urunga.

Internet

After 2020, high speed internet became available to all households, private enterprise removed the task from politicians with the advent of new technology. The high speed has many advantages which have discussed in the sections on employment.

One item worth noting for those in remote  areas is the hover antenna which can climb up to the point where communication is possible, using a drone like device.

Micro production

Technology has also moved away from large scale manufacture, to allow much more flexible arrangements for home based production of goods and services.

The resolution of the internet speeds has been a key factor in the ability to download design templates to make local production possible.

The use of innovative materials including hemp instead of steel has been critical.

Power Plastics


A technology which was struggling in the second decade of the 21st century was power plastics to see click on POWER PLASTICS

“We will use Power Plastic wherever conventional modules aren’t a suitable solution. Particularly in facade construction and in the automotive sector, the highly flexible and pliable material can be used in a variety of ways to save energy cost-effectively." 

It came into its own because of the need for shading structures and the production of electricity was a bi-product. Shading is necessary to protect plants and as a second skin over houses to reduce impact of heat.



  

Adopting sustainable technologies such as solar power,collecting rainwater, recycling, hydro and wind power

The sustainable technologies required to deal with the warming weather needed to go much further than the simplistic solutions listed in the title of this section.

As early as 2014 the community moved to free itself from the the electricity grid. The Bellingen Energy Committee raised funding to develop a local grid based on solar and hydro power.

By 2017 the development of electricity storage devices in each house allowed the rationalisation of the local grid. This new facility was based on the power router which could accept power from any source e.g. solar panels, local grid or from excess capacity of neighbours.

Collecting rainwater was supplemented by capturing excess water from rivers and streams in time of high rainfall and store in underground storage facilities - an approach used in India 1200 years ago.

Solar power is used to move water between storage facilities and creates electricity as a by product and stored at nearby power storage facilities.

Diversifying the economy and creating employment opportunities

The key to creating greater diversity in the economy and thereby greater employment opportunity was localisation.

As the years progressed, the idea of travelling to Coffs Harbour to work and shop became less socially appealing.

Those people working in Coffs Harbour and other areas but living in Bellingen because of the lifestyle realised that a simpler life, less work and commuting could offset any loss of income.

Changes to land allocation and down sizing in sizes of houses , dealt with in another section explains how this happened.

The completion of fast broadband in the  National Broad Band Network opened up the range of income earning activities. Anything that could be done in a city could be carried out in the surrounds of Bellingen.

Hemp and bamboo became important agricultural resources as well as horticulture to feed the local people.

Hemp provided the raw materials for many local activities from food, to fabric and construction materials. Fortunately much knowledge could be drawn from the past as hemp was a major resource for the world until the 1930s.

Hemp is used for the panels and skirts of the jem-mobile hovercraft which are fabricated in Bellingen.

Bamboo provided local resources for building, fabric weaving and for structures of geodesic shading to protect plants from rising temperatures.

Engaging with each other

The growth of localisation which developed strongly in the early 2020s, helped the community to "engage with each other".

When people shopped locally they got to know the shopkeeper who lived locally and they also met  and chatted with their neighbours.

Moreover there was a realisation that happiness came from involvement with others.

The change to a super council gave reason to reflect on organisation of the community.  With only one representative at the super council, it was necessary to rethink how the voice of the community could be heard.

Firstly recognising that  the  rivers of the Shire were the focal identity of the community led to the realisation that the catchment of these rivers should be the boundary of the Bellingen community.

The old idea of voting for councillors as the voice of the community was replaced by the formation of   "Community Catchment Custodians".  Over a period of time, elders were identified by public opinion and invited to meet as the custodians.

Their determinations are used to back up the super council representative when presenting the case for action and spending in the Bellingen Catchment Area.

However as the extent of services provided by Government directly affects the rates paid by occupants, the degree of self sufficiency of the community increased dramatically.

Increased community expectation

What was described as "increased community expectation", changed slowly to "how do we. the community fix problems as they arise"   This included implementing new ideas, rather than expecting someone else to do it.

Maintaining our vibrant lifestyle

A vibrant lifestyle means engaging with others in fun and educational activities.

More festivals were created, particularly using the Connell Park Domes, which guaranteed climate control -  see  DOME STRUCTURES

Living in a safe and healthy community

A safe and healthy community is only possible if the people engage with each other, looking after their neighbours.

This was helped by the use of communication technology which could alert neighbours and health professional to changing circumstances in a home or on the streets.

Providing and maintaining essential services

The demise of Bellingen Shire Council, which was swallowed up by the Super Regional Council, had the effect of aligning the boundaries of all essential services eg health, police, and fire services.

Although it meant that control moved away from local hands,  the rationalisation of services made it easier for local voices to make the case for improved services in their area.

In the case of Bellingen Shire the local hospital provided a clear example of the value of local health services, rather than centralisation in regional towns.

Ensuring our health and well being

The answer to this challenge was in eating local nutritous food and a more active life, which came from the effort to grow local food.

Our growing population

Additional population was accommodated and welcomed.

The move in 2017 to a dual system of land ownership of existing freehold and new land (mainly from State Forests) provided under a low cost leasehold system, meant that the first time home owners could start off without the heavy burden of buying land.

Additional land under the leasehold system helped to keep freehold house prices stable and encouraged movement from the cities.

The local economy was helped by additional customers and the circulation of money around the economy.

Renewal old ageing infrastructure

Waterfall Way

The NSW State Government Department RMS was renamed Highways Inc in 2016

Desperately needing funds to complete the sinking Pacific Highway between Macksville and Urunga, it decided to cease funding Waterfall Way, after it complete the highway from Dorrigo to Coffs Harbour.

As some compensation it funded the building of a funicular railway.

http://www.environmentalgraffiti.com/urban-exploration/news-steepest-railways-world

This was built on the site of the old Syndicate Tramway which allowed timber to be moved from the top of the escarpment to Gleniffer in early twentieth century.

This new railway allowed produce to move to and from the Dorrigo plateau and provided an exciting tourist link, adding to the charm of a visit to Bellingen.

The scale of the system allows cars and containers to move up and down the escarpment.

A secondary advantage was that it stopped the gravel trucks passing through Bellingen town.

Cellular road construction

Methods became available about 2016 to allow cellular construction of roads that allowed use of recycled fill materials rather than newly quarried gravel - see above and following link http://www.prs-med.com/road-construction/road-construction-overview

Hovercraft - jem-mobile

The technology of the new hovercraft vehicles is described in the technology section, but their advantage was to reduce the load on roads and simplify road maintenance.

Much of the maintenance of roads was delegated to residents especially after Bellingen Shire Council ceased to operate.

The increased cost of housing

An analysis of the cost of housing showed a number of contributing factors

Price of land.  The move in 2017 to a dual system of land ownership of existing freehold and new land (mainly from State Forests) provided under a low cost leasehold system, meant that the first time home owners could start off without the heavy burden of buying land.

Cost of building

The social acceptance of smaller houses reduced the cost  of building.

Similarly starting at a simple level, encouraged design where the components of a house could dismantled and moved to another site if expansion was required or the owner aspired to freehold ownership.

Elsewhere the localisation of sewage processing and power storage at each home contributed to this flexibility.

In existing houses or where larger houses are built, design requirements ensure that house can be divided into 2 or more residents. This meant that extra accommodation could be provided in the case of emergencies - there were still floods- and  for visiting tourists.

Financial sustainability

Financial stability was achieved by reducing cost of housing and also living costs because of a degree of  self sufficiency

Increased cost of service provision

The move to a super council, led people to want to be more self sufficient and require less service from government sources.

Increased number of older residents

Older but fitter residents meant that people stayed in a home environment longer

Fast communications allowed supervision of health conditions at home without moving older people to central accommodation.

The support for older residents provided a growing requirement for health support personnel.

The reduction of the need for other services allowed more funds to be allocated to health support.

Ensuring public areas are accessible for older people and people with a disability

The growth of the local hemp industry provided cheap materials for building safe pathways for older people.

The new electromagnetic engines made mobility devices cheaper and more fun.

Improving and better coordinating public transport

By 2030 the idea of public transport had changed - now it is used to move groups of people who have come together to other locations.

Tourists arriving by fun trains at Urunga will be transported to Bellingen by  the large scale jem-mobile hovercraft using the Bellinger River.

Some explanation may be required on "fun" trains. To encourage holiday makers to come to Bellingen using public transport, the journey is packed with entertainment/learning according to the type of group using the hover trains.

The use of public transport for individuals has become redundant.

The successful development of community engagement, together with the internet has meant that those who need transport are connected with jem-mobile hover vehicle drivers as they move along the travel tracks.

Average waiting time 2 minutes.

Identifying and protecting our cultural heritage

Over the years the definition of cultural heritage has evolved.

The "country' is recognised as the focal point of identification of the people living in the area.

So people moving into the area are encouraged to identify with this "country" rather than where they came from. This has led to the home losing its old fashioned concept of identity. This means there is little concern at moving from one house to another as circumstances change.

Cultural heritage as a history is carefully collected, but long ago it was realised that it was difficult to know how the people related to the country 2000 to 5000 years ago.

The changing climate together with the complete clearing of the land in the nineteenth and early twentieth century makes it difficult to identify what the land used to look like and how it was used.

Enhancing the natural environment and its biodiversity

The natural environment has changed drastically since the arrival of the cedar cutters in early nineteenth century, which  means that there is no natural environment remaining.

Many parts of Bellingen were cleared, as the following photograph demonstrates.

A report by the District Forester in 1912 not only itemised the state of the forests in early 20th century but also looked back to the 19th century.

click here for PAGE 16 OF THE FORESTERS REPORT 1912

As this is a poor quality image due to the technology of the 20th century, some points are reproduced below

"The biggest hardwood recorded for the Bellinger River is said to be a flooded gum, standing on Greer's conditional purchase at Fernmount. Only the burnt butt now remains, it measures 66 feet at girth at ground level."

"The original forest, according to Bellingen pioneers, was almost park like in its growth, and low lateral branching was thereby permitted."


The planning for restoration could not replicate the past and therefore concentrated on what could be achieved within the constraints of climate change, taking into account risk of fires an the most effective corridors for wildlife migrating south as temperatures rose.

Protecting waterways and coastal foreshores

Coastal foreshores have been affected by the start of sea level rise and foreshore development has been stopped for that reason.

The use of the jem-mobile hovercraft has reduced damage to river systems

"Hovercraft and the environment

There is a common erroneous perception that hovercraft are not environment friendly, but that is not the case hovercraft are, in fact, much more environment friendly than a conventional vessel.

Modern hovercraft designs have the blades contained within a short tunnel called a duct; this not only avoids the turbulence spilling off the blade tips but it also helps to control the air passing through the propeller allowing the thrust to be made more directional, so this is a double boost to efficiency as well as reducing noise levels.

Excessive wash can, of course, cause erosion to and stir up the bed of shallow water; it therefore follows that any vessel which can minimise this effect is doing less environmental damage. Hovercraft do not just minimise the effects of wash, they virtually totally eliminate it.

It can be quite easily demonstrated that the hovercraft will, in fact, cause less disturbance than the high tide or a person walking across the beach meaning that hovercraft are able to cross areas which are environmentally sensitive without damaging the environment or disturbing the wildlife living there."

In the early 2020s there was concern that the building of off river water storage would damage waterways, but this has not proven to be the case, as electronic devices sensitively control timing of diversion of water in heavy rainfall activity.